Caution ahead: Nine warns of 'economic and market uncertainty'

Nine Entertainment has flagged a more cautious financial outlook for the remainder of FY25, with softness in its radio division and a cooling ad market offsetting gains in TV and streaming.

The company’s latest trading update shows strong audience growth across marquee programs, but cracks are beginning to show beneath the surface.

Radio and publishing

Broadcast radio has taken a hit, with Nine reporting a low double-digit percentage drop in Q3 advertising revenue. While digital radio revenue climbed by over 20% for the quarter, it wasn’t enough to balance out the slide in traditional radio spend.

Publishing, though bolstered by a 14% year-on-year rise in digital subscription revenue in Q3, is only expected to match first-half EBITDA, with cost controls balancing out seasonal ad volatility.

Nine Entertainment CEO Matt Stanton

Television

The Total TV business, which includes free-to-air, streaming and BVOD, remains Nine’s strongest performer, lifting ad revenue by almost 8% for the March quarter.

However, the company warns that ongoing “economic and market uncertainty” will likely dampen momentum through the back half of the year, election spending in March and April offered only temporary relief.

The broadcaster said Married at First Sight lifted its Total TV audience by 16% year-on-year, while the return of the NRL was up 6%.

Other content highlights included season two of Stan Original Black Snow and investigative series Building Bad.

Total TV costs (excluding Olympic coverage) are expected to remain flat year-on-year, but pressures remain.

While Nine reiterated its full-year guidance, including $50 million in FY25 cost efficiencies and a new $10–20 million to be realised this year from a broader $100 million target through FY27, investors are being primed for a slower second half.

CoStar x Domain

With due diligence ongoing into the CoStar proposal, Nine is withholding any fresh trading commentary on Domain for now.

According to The Australian Financial Review, Nine’s advisers have signalled a willingness to sell its 60% stake in Domain, but only if the price climbs to $4.65 per share.

That would put Nine’s holding at an estimated $1.76 billion.

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